Although the map of the electoral college will be the graphic of choice during television coverage on Election Day, in some areas of our country it will not be the most important visual. That honor will go to the weather map!

Political scientists Brad Gomez, Thomas Hansford and George Krause analyzed the impact of adverse weather on voter turnout and found that voter participation is reduced by 1% per inch of rain, and the reduced voter turnout in rainy regions tended to benefit the Republican Party in the 14 presidential elections studied. Their study also hypothesized that the weather likely contributed to the Presidential election outcomes in the 1960 and 2000.

Rain Forecast for Election Day 

On election-day tomorrow, forget the exit polls, the spin artists, and the talking heads. Look at the radar, rain gauges, and your local forecast of rainfall amounts, especially in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Rainfall is expected across each of these states tomorrow, as well as across the Gulf Coast and in the Pacific Northwest. Some of these areas could see localized flooding putting at odds the directives of “Go Vote” and “Turn Around Don’t Drown.”