A weak disturbance moving across the Northern Plains will allow for a risk for thunderstorms on Friday.

• Thunderstorms across the Northern Plains on Friday
• Risk for Thunderstorms Saturday across the Upper Midwest
• Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday
• Excessive Rainfall Risk Sunday across the Upper Midwest

US Hazards

Thunderstorms across the Northern Plains on Friday
Conditions will be favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region today. At the surface, low pressure over eastern Montana will allow for southerly flow over the area, bringing in moist air. This moist air combined with daytime heating will allow instability to build. An upper level trough moving into the Plains will provide lift for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms should begin to develop during the afternoon with large hail being the primary hazard, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As the area of low pressure moves eastward, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front today and tonight. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, but some large hail cannot be ruled out.

Major Cities in Region: Minot, ND, Bismarck, ND, Grand Forks, ND, Fargo, ND

Region 1

Risk for Thunderstorms Saturday across the Upper Midwest
A weak cold front will push across the Northern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the cold front, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop, but coverage should be limited to Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any storms that develop. 

Major Cities in Region: Minneapolis, MN, Duluth, MN, Sault Ste. Marie, MI

SPC Convective Outlook for Saturday

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday
A developing area of low pressure and associated cold front will lift across the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Increasing moisture is expected behind a warm front. Storms may have some difficulty developing, however, any storms that develop will have the potential for severe winds and large hail.

Major Cities in Region: Pierre, SD, Sioux Falls, SD, Minneapolis, Green Bay, WI

SPC Convective Outlook for Saturday

Excessive Rainfall Risk Sunday across the Upper Midwest 
The warm front described above will stall across the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase throughout the day with rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches and locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches. A threat for minor flooding and local runoff will exist, mainly from the Minnesota/Wisconsin border into northern Wisconsin. 

Major Cities in Region: Minneapolis, MN, Green Bay, WI

Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Sunday

A Look Ahead
An upper level trough will move into the Rockies early next week. At the surface, a stalled front will be situated from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This front will be the focus for the development of thunderstorms across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Monday into Tuesday. 

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