Severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Desert Southwest.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Southeast Arizona, Southern New Mexico, and Far Western Texas in response to strong upper level forcing and moderate surface heating. Strong upper level winds and cold temperatures aloft will allow for some of these thunderstorms to become severe with large hail in excess of one inch in diameter the primary hazard. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two will also be possible.
A strong upper level low will continue to move through the Desert Southwest. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, strong southwest flow will allow deep tropical moisture from the Pacific to be transported into the region. This will allow for thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. Widespread accumulations of 0.50 incbhes are expected with locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00 inches possible in some areas. Flash flooding will be possible in low lying areas and areas normally dry.