A series of disturbances moving across portions of the Northern and Central Plains into the Midwest will bring a risk of thunderstorms to the region on Friday. Some of these thunderstorms may produce heavy to excessive rainfall across the Midwest. Thunderstorms will continue across Central and Southern Florida.
Thunderstorms Friday from the Northern and Central Plains into the Midwest
An area of low pressure and a stalled front will be the focus for severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and into the overnight hours. A series of upper level disturbances within the jet stream will provide additional forcing for the development of these storms. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from Iowa eastward into Ohio and Kentucky during the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards with these storms. Further to the west, storms will begin to develop across the Western Plains late in the afternoon and move into the Northern and Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards as storms develop, but as storms evolve into a line, the primary hazard will become damaging winds.
Major Cities in Region: Scottsbluff, NE, Rapid City, SD, Pierre, SD, Sioux Falls, SD, Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Columbus, OH
Excessive Rainfall for the Midwest Friday
While confidence is increasing that excessive rainfall will occur across portions of the Midwest on Friday, there is still uncertainty in the specific details. Thunderstorms will continue across the region through the morning, but a more substantial complex will likely develop during the evening. Within this complex, rainfall amounts will range 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts. The highest risk for flash flooding will be across eastern portions of Nebraska and South Dakota into western Iowa.
Major Cities in Region: Pierre, SD, Sioux City, IA, Omaha, NE, Minneapolis, MN, Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL
Risk for Thunderstorms Friday across Central and Southern Florida
An upper level low centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will continue to generate thunderstorms across much of Florida today. Aided by a sea breeze moving inland, conditions should become favorable for the development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Most of this activity is expected during the afternoon and evening before weakening and diminishing after sunset.
Major Cities in Region: Orlando, FL, Palm Beach, FL, Miami, FL
Major Cities in Region: Des Moines, IA, St. Louis, MO, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Cincinnati, OH, Charleston, WV, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, PA
Major Cities in Region: Helena, MT, Great Falls, MT. Billings, MT, North Platte, NE, Pierre, SD, Sioux Falls, SD, Omaha, NE
Major Cities in Region: Minot, ND, Bismarck, ND, Pierre, SD, Sioux Falls, SD, Sioux City, IA
Risk for Thunderstorms on Sunday from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley
Conditions will be favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms along a stalled frontal boundary on Sunday. A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards with any storms that develop.
Major Cities in Region: Cedar Rapids, IA, St. Louis, MO, Evansville, IN, Indianapolis, IN, Louisville, KY, Cincinnati, OH
A Look Ahead
Showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Monday as an area of low pressure moves eastward. By Tuesday, showers will extend from the Ohio Valley into the Plains. An area of low pressure may develop across the Plains on Wednesday, bringing a risk for showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Plains. Additional thunderstorms may develop across the Plains on Thursday.
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