Tropical Storm Expected to Form in the Gulf of Mexico This Week
by Daphne Thompson, on Jun 19, 2017 4:24:39 PM
If you live in, or have assets along the Gulf Coast, now is the time to start watching the weather closely. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, is expected to strengthen within the next two days and bring flooding rains, gusty winds, and high waves to the area.
Forecast guidance is indicating rapid development of a closed circulation over the central Gulf tonight and there continues to be a high threat for Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 to develop into a Tropical (or Sub-Tropical) Storm as it traverses the Gulf through the next few days.
At present, we anticipate a northward track into tonight followed by a turn to the west toward the Texas coast Tuesday into Wednesday. A northward turn should then resume on Thursday as trough moves into the north-central US.
In the GOES-16 visible satellite image below, you can see that as of Monday afternoon, there is quite a lot of convection occurring over the Gulf of Mexico. Look closely and you can see multiple vortices spinning off to the west of the main cloud mass in the center of the Gulf.
Models are not yet in agreement with each other. However, the coastal states in this area can expect to get a lot of rain. Some locations may receive up to 8 inches of rain, which could lead to coastal flooding and errosion, once the tropical disturbance approaches land.
The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is just starting to really get going. A second storm, Tropical Storm Bret, is currently located near the coast of Venezuela. Are you prepared for a tropical storm or hurricane? Check out our Tropical Season Outlook Webinar for more information on what is expected and how we can help you assess your weather risk and monitor your assets.