National Weather Summary for Wednesday, October 5, 2016
by David Moran, on Oct 5, 2016 11:29:50 AM
Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Central Plains on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Additional thunderstorm activity is likely on Thursday across the Central Plains as an upper level trough digs into the region. Hurricane conditions will be possible for portions of Florida Thursday and Friday as Hurricane Matthew approaches, and into the weekend along the Carolina coast.
A stalled frontal boundary stretching from the Southern Plains northeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley will provide a focus for the development of thunderstorms across Region 1 on Wednesday. With sufficient instability and wind shear over the region, there will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. The main threat should begin by late afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Storm coverage should be fairly isolated in nature, but hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible.
Major Cities in Region: Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Wichita, KS, Springfield, MO, Kansas City, MO, Davenport, IA
Hurricane Matthew is currently located about 65 miles north-northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba, and is moving towards the north at about 10 mph. Intensification is expected as it approaches the east coast of Florida. Tropical storm conditions will likely arrive by Thursday afternoon and continue through the night and through much of Friday. Sustained winds of 45-60 mph with gusts in excess of 65 mph can be expected across inland portions of the Florida Peninsula and along the west coast. Widespread rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches can be expected, with locally higher amounts in excess of 4 inches possible in some locations. A few isolated tornadoes will also be possible. While tropical storm conditions are currently forecast, should the track of Matthew shift to the west, hurricane conditions would become more likely.
Matthew is expected to intensify as it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Into the Bahamas. As it moves through the Bahamas, it is likely to be a category 4 hurricane. Sustained winds of 95-120 mph with gusts in excess of 135 mph will be possible across portions of the northern Bahamas late Wednesday through Saturday morning. Seas in excess of 20 feet will be possible, as well as a moderate threat for waterspouts.
Further north, tropical storm conditions are possible from the northeastern coast of Florida and along the coast of Georgia. Tropical storm conditions will be possible beginning Friday morning and will continue through Saturday. Sustained winds of 40-55 mph with higher gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible. In addition, widespread rainfall accumulations of 4-8 inches can be expected across northern Florida, coastal Georgia, and southern South Carolina with locally higher amounts in excess of 12 inches possible. A few tornadoes will also be possible as well.
Major Cities in Region: Miami, FL, Tampa, FL, Orlando, FL, Jacksonville, FL, Savannah, GA, Charleston, SC
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Thursday across Central Plains
Rich moisture is expected to be in place across portions of the Central Plains ahead of a cold front by Thursday afternoon. Strong daytime heating will allow for sufficient destabilization and the development of thunderstorms. With strong instability and wind shear, some thunderstorms will likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible. Rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches will be likely for much of the region, with locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches possible.
Major Cities in Region: Enid, OK, Wichita, KS, Kansas City, MO, Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday
Hurricane Matthew (red oval) is currently moving toward the northwest at 12 mph and this motion is expected during the next 24-48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be near the east coast of Florida by Thursday, and is expected to be near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts possible. Some strengthening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical Storm Nicole (green oval) is located 500 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and is moving west-northwestward at 8 mph, but a turn toward the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the north and northeast is expected by Thursday night with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next 48 hours.
A tropical wave (blue oval) is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms east of the Windward Islands. Development, if any, is expected to be slow while this system moves westward at 10-15 mph during the next several days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible across the Windward and Leeward Islands as the wave moves through the area.
Tropical Infrared Satellite for Thursday
A Look Ahead
Hurricane Matthew will continue to move along the East Coast for the next few days, but the track is uncertain beyond Sunday. Interests along the East Coast are encouraged to monitor the track of Matthew closely.
This is just a brief look at current weather hazards. We can provide you site-specific forecast information for the purpose of protecting your personnel and assets. Try a 7-day demo right away and learn how timely precision weather information can enhance your bottom line.