National Weather Summary for Wednesday, October 4, 2017
by David Moran, on Oct 4, 2017 11:15:33 AM
A few thunderstorms may develop across northwestern New Mexico on Wednesday. Excessive rainfall is expected from eastern New Mexico into Kansas and Oklahoma along a stalled front. Elevated winds and seas will continue for portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
- Thunderstorms across Northwest New Mexico on Wednesday
- Elevated Winds and Seas Continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Early Friday
- Excessive Rainfall Wednesday from Eastern New Mexico into Kansas and Oklahoma
- Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Southern and Central High Plains
- Potential for Excessive Rainfall for the Missouri Valley Thursday
- Excessive Rainfall for Thursday in Southeast Florida
- Thunderstorm Potential for the Southern Plains Friday
- Excessive Rainfall Possible Friday for Portions of the Missouri Valley and Midwest
- Tropical Update
Thunderstorms across Northwest New Mexico on Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop across northwest New Mexico later this afternoon and into the early evening as deep moisture spreads into the region. Strong upper level winds and forcing may allow for a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail. Storms should begin to weaken after sunset.
Major Cities in Region: Albuquerque, NM, Santa Fe, NM
Elevated Winds and Seas Continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Early Friday
With high pressure to the north of the region and an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula, elevated winds and seas will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through early Friday morning. Across western portions of the region, winds will range 20-25 knots with gusts in excess of 35 knots; seas will range 7-11 feet. Further east, winds will range 25-30 knots with gusts in excess of 40 knots; seas of 9-12 feet are expected.
Excessive Rainfall Wednesday from Eastern New Mexico into Kansas and Oklahoma
A cold front will quickly stall this morning and gradually retreat northward as a warm front through the afternoon and evening. Ongoing shower activity is expected to continue with a threat of minor flooding and local runoff through early Thursday morning. The area with the highest risk will extend from eastern portions of New Mexico into portions of Kansas and Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches are forecast.
Major Cities in Region: Amarillo, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Sherman, TX, Tulsa, OK
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Wednesday
Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Southern and Central High Plains
A weak upper level low will move into the Four Corners region on Thursday. While significant severe weather is not expected, instability should be sufficient for the development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms before dark.
Major Cities in Region: Albuquerque, NM, Lamar, CO, Goodland, KS
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday
Potential for Excessive Rainfall for the Missouri Valley Thursday
A stalled front across the Missouri Valley may allow for the re-intensification of thunderstorms as an area of low pressure develops over the Northern and Central Plains. Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast across the Missouri Valley with a risk for flooding and runoff. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts are expected,
Major Cities in Region: Grand Island, NE, Sioux City, IA, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Davenport, IA
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Thursday
Excessive Rainfall for Thursday in Southeast Florida
An area of low pressure just to the east of the Florida Keys will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across southeast Florida on Thursday. Some coastal flooding is possible.
Major Cities in Region: Miami, FL, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Palm Beach, FL
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Thursday
Thunderstorm Potential for the Southern Plains Friday
An area of low pressure is forecast to intensify over the Central US on Friday. Increasing moisture over the Southern Plains will promote the development of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe. Storms will likely develop during the afternoon and evening with hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
Major Cities in Region: Lubbock, TX, Amarillo, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Wichita, KS, Topeka, KS
SPC Convective Outlook for Friday
Excessive Rainfall Possible Friday for Portions of the Missouri Valley and Midwest
As the area of low pressure described above continues to intensify, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Missouri Valley and Midwest on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected.
Major Cities in Region: North Platte, NE, Grand Island, NE, Lincoln, NE, Topeka, KS, Sioux City, IA, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Davenport, IA, Chicago, IL
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Friday
Tropical Depression Sixteen (green oval) is located 25 miles south-southwest of San Andres Island and moving northwestward at 7 mph. On this forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday and move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday. It is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. This depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.
An area of low pressure located over west central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida (blue oval) is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across southern Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although significant tropical development is not expected, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over the Bahamas and southern Florida over the next couple of days.
Enhanced Infrared Tropical Satellite
A Look Ahead
As Tropical Depression Sixteen becomes a tropical storm and approaches the Southeast this weekend, there will be the potential for heavy rain and brief tornadoes on Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected.
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