National Weather Summary for Wednesday, June 28, 2017
by David Moran, on Jun 28, 2017 10:27:57 AM
There will be a risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall across portions of the Midwest and Central Plains on Wednesday as an area of low pressure moves across the region.
- Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall from the Midwest into the Central Plains on Wednesday
- Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday from Northeast into Central Plains
- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains on Friday
Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall from the Midwest into the Central Plains on Wednesday
An area of low pressure located across the eastern Dakotas, and a trailing cold front over central Nebraska and west Kansas will be responsible for the potential for severe storms across the Midwest later today. Currently, a large cluster of strong, but non-severe thunderstorms is moving northeastward across portions of Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, and northern Missouri. This activity is moving away from higher instability to the west thus the severe threat is expected to be low through midday, However, clearing skies and daytime heating in the wake of early morning and midday storms is expected to result in increasing instability and a new round of thunderstorm development across Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin during the early to mid afternoon hours. Storms may develop along the front as far south as south-central Kansas although forecast confidence in this area is lower. The primary risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will exist mainly across Iowa. This activity will slowly advance eastward during the afternoon and evening with storms weakening. Strong wind gusts will then be the primary hazard.
Further west, a low threat of isolated severe storms will exist across the western High Plains and Rockies. Although moisture will be somewhat lacking, adequate daytime heating within higher terrain is forecast to allow for isolated storm development during the late afternoon and early evening.
In addition to the severe weather, there will be a risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, mainly across the Midwest. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 4 inches are forecast.
Major Cities in Region: Billings, MT, Cheyenne, WY, Denver, CO, North Platte, NE, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Minneapolis, MN, Green Bay, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL
Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday from Northeast into Central Plains
The threat for severe weather will return to the Central Plains and Midwest on Thursday as a frontal boundary remains stalled across the region. There is some uncertainty regarding placement and timing of storms due to thunderstorm activity from the morning. Regardless, by the afternoon, another round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Kansas and Nebraska into the Midwest. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with the initial storms. During the evening and overnight hours, a complex of storms may develop and track through Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Damaging winds and flash flooding will be the primary hazards with local rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches.
Major Cities in Region: North Platte, NE, Wichita, KS, Topeka, KS, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, St. Louis, MO, Chicago, IL, Detroit, MI, Cleveland, OH
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains on Friday
A stalled frontal boundary over the Central Plains will finally move southward as a cold front as an area of low pressure intensifies over the far Northern Plains. This will shift the threat of severe weather into the Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours along and ahead of the front and then increase in coverage into the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. The damaging wind threat and heavy rainfall will persist into the overnight hours across the Southern Plains as the front stalls once again. Isolated flash flooding will be a concern over Oklahoma and North Texas.
Major Cities in Region: Oklahoma City, OK, St. Louis, MO, Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL, Detroit, MI
SPC Convective Outlook for Friday
A Look Ahead
By Saturday, an area of low pressure will continue to track northeastward into Canada on Saturday with the trailing cold front pushing into the Northeast during the day. Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. While there is some uncertainty, the most likely area will be portions of the Northeast into the Mid Atlantic. Strong winds and hail will be the primary hazards with these storms.
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