Two areas of low pressure moving through the eastern US will allow for the development of thunderstorms Tuesday for portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. A few thunderstorms may develop across portions of Kansas and Missouri on Tuesday. Across the Pacific Northwest, a few thunderstorms may develop across the Pacific Northwest as a ridge of high pressure moves out of the region. A stalled front will be the focus for the development of thunderstorms along the Louisiana coast.

• Strong to Severe Thunderstorms for Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Tuesday
• Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Tuesday across Kansas and Missouri
• Thunderstorms along Louisiana Coast on Tuesday
• Thunderstorm Potential for Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
• Continued Thunderstorms Wednesday across the Northeast
• Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday across the Central Plains
• Excessive Rainfall Risk across Southwestern Texas on Wednesday
• Thunderstorm Risk for Southern Plains on Thursday
• Thunderstorms Thursday across the Midwest

US Hazards

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms for Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Tuesday
An upper level low over Ontario is expected to bring a cold front into the Northeast this afternoon. This will coincide with peak heating, leading to the development of thunderstorms across the Northeastern US and Mid Atlantic. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The highest tornado risk will extend from portions of Pennsylvania into New York. Further south into the Mid Atlantic, afternoon and evening storms are expected with gusty winds and hail the primary hazards.

Update 12:36pm EDT: Severe thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging winds near Altoona, PA.

Radar 12:36pm EDT

Update 12:40pm EDT: Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of New York and Pennsylvania until 8pm EDT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Update 1:18pm EDT: Tornado warned storm east of Altoona, PA. Storm may produce hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.

Radar 1:18pm EDT

Major Cities in Region: Raleigh, NC, Norfolk, VA, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, Buffalo, NY, Burlington, VT

Region 1

Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Tuesday across Kansas and Missouri
An upper level low is expected to move through portions of the Plains and into the Midwest this afternoon. At the surface, instability will build through the day, leading to the development of thunderstorms. Severe winds and hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms into the evening hours.

Major Cities in Region: Wichita, KS, Topeka, KS, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Springfield, MO, St. Louis, MO, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN

Region 2

Thunderstorms along Louisiana Coast on Tuesday
A stalled frontal boundary will continue to promote the development of thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a developing surface low is forecast to form just offshore of Louisiana. This low, in addition to plentiful moisture, may create favorable conditions for supercell thunderstorms late in the day. This afternoon, the front should begin to lift northward as a warm front. This will allow instability to build south of the front. Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop with severe winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible. 

Update 12:57pm CDT: Tornado Warning southwest of New Orleans.

Radar 12:57pm CDT

Update 1:49pm CDT: Severe thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging winds south of New Orleans, LA.

Radar 1:49pm CDT

Major Cities in Region: Lafayette, LA, Baton Rouge, LA, New Orleans, LA

Region 3

Thunderstorm Potential for Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
An approaching upper level low will pivot across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon while a cold front tracks across the Cascades. On the east side of the range, scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and a few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out before activity weakens or moves out of the region after dark.

Major Cities in Region: Yakima, WA

Region 4

Continued Thunderstorms Wednesday across the Northeast
There may be another round of thunderstorms across the Northeast on Wednesday as a cold front moves into the region. While instability will not be especially strong, wind shear should be sufficient for the development of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds.

Major Cities in Region: Pittsburgh, PA, Syracuse, NY, Burlington, VT, Concord, NH

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday across the Central Plains
Plentiful moisture across the Central Plains and daytime heating will be sufficient for the development of thunderstorms as a warm front moves northward. Strong winds and possibly some hail is expected through the early evening. 

Major Cities in Region: Wichita, KS, Topeka, KS, Kansas City, MO

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Excessive Rainfall Risk across Southwestern Texas on Wednesday
Due to the region already being saturated from previous rainfall, new rainfall amounts on Wednesday may lead to flooding across Southwestern Texas.

Major Cities in Region: Odessa, TX

Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline on Wednesday

Thunderstorm Risk for Southern Plains on Thursday
A weak area of low pressure developing across the Southern Plains on Thursday should produce thunderstorms for much of Oklahoma and Texas, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms not out of the question. Severe winds and large hail will be the primary hazards with the strongest storms. 

Major Cities in Region: Dallas, TX, Lawton, OK

SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday

Thunderstorms Thursday across the Midwest
A warm front lifting across the region along with increasing instability should allow for thunderstorm development on Thursday, with activity increasing in coverage through the evening. Strong winds and hail will be the primary hazards during the afternoon and evening. 

Major Cities in Region: Des Moines, IA, Cedar Rapids, IA, St. Louis, MO, Springfield, IL

SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday

A Look Ahead
There will be a risk for thunderstorms on Friday for portions of the Southern Plains into the Ozarks on Friday ahead of a cold front. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rain in excess of 2 inches, leading to the potential for flooding. As the cold front continues to progress eastward on Saturday, the thunderstorm risk will move eastward from the Central US into the Appalachians. 

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