National Weather Summary for Tuesday, March 28, 2017
by David Moran, on Mar 28, 2017 11:49:42 AM
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southern Plains on Tuesday ahead of an area of low pressure. An upper level disturbance tracking across the Eastern US will bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday.
A strong upper level system will move into the Plains on Tuesday, which will lead to the formation of an area of low pressure. The focus for the the development of thunderstorms will be a cold front and dryline which extends to the south and a warm front to the east of this area of low pressure. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop across the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas this morning. By early afternoon, activity will spread into western and central Oklahoma. Significant Texas severe weather is not expected with the initial round of storms, however, isolated storms could contain gusty winds or hail. By the late afternoon into the evening, more robust thunderstorm development is anticipated. Supercells will likely develop initially, bringing a threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The highest threat for tornadoes is currently centered over northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma. By the late evening and overnight hours, storms will evolve into a squall line with the main threat transitioning to hail and damaging winds. Some areas may receive multiple rounds of severe weather today. In addition, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will also be a concern.
Update 12:20pm CDT: Thunderstorms capable of large hail in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Radar 12:20pm CDT
Update 12:30pm CDT: Thunderstorms producing large hail southwest of Lubbock, TX.
Radar 12:30pm CDT
Update 1pm CDT: Severe Thunderstorm Watch for western and northwestern Texas until 9pm CDT. Large hail and isolated tornadoes will be the primary hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Update 1:26pm CDT: Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail continue to develop near Lubbock.
Radar 1:26pm CDT
Update 1:52pm CDT: Severe thunderstorms developing in northwestern Oklahoma. Large hail primary hazard.
Radar 1:52pm CDT
Update 1:58pm CDT: Severe Thunderstorm Watch for West Central and Southwest Texas until 10pm CDT.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Major Cities in Region: Midland, TX, San Antonio, TX, Dallas, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Ft. Smith, AR
An upper level disturbance tracking across the region will continue to allow the development of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Widespread cloud cover may preclude a more significant threat, however, any storms that develop will be capable of gusty winds and hail.
Major Cities in Region: Charlotte, NC, Raleigh, NC, Richmond, VA, Norfolk, VA
Excessive Rainfall Possible for Portions of Oklahoma on Tuesday Could Lead to Flash Flood
In addition to the Oklahoma severe weather, there will be a potential for excessive rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 5 inches are expected from late Tuesday morning into early Wednesday morning could lead to an Oklahoma flood. Localized flooding will be possible with the heavier thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening.
Major Cities in Region: Lawton, OK, Oklahoma City, OK, Ardmore, OK
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Tuesday
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible from Eastern Texas and Oklahoma into Lower Mississippi Valley
The severe weather threat will shift eastward on Wednesday as a large low pressure system slowly tracks through the Southern Plains. Ongoing thunderstorms Wednesday morning will pose a risk for strong wind gusts. This activity will diminish in the morning, with redevelopment of thunderstorms expected by the afternoon hours. This activity will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening hours, with the greatest threat being over the Ozarks and Arklatex region. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be potential hazards with these storms. Clusters of storms capable of damaging winds will shift eastward through the overnight hours as far east as the Mississippi River.
Major Cities in Region: Fort Smith, AR, Shreveport, LA, Little Rock, AR
SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Thursday from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley
Into Thursday, the severe weather threat will shift eastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley as an area of low pressure continues to track northeastward. Ongoing thunderstorms will be weakening during the morning hours, but more thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
Major Cities in Region: St. Louis, MO, Memphis, TN, Jackson, MS, New Orleans, LA, Birmingham, AL, Atlanta, GA, Knoxville, TN
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday
A Look Ahead
As an area of low pressure continues to track through the Ohio Valley and Northeast, thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Southeast ahead of a cold front. Damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any storm that develops. By the weekend, another area of low pressure will move into the Southern Plains, allowing for the potential for thunderstorms. This risk will move southward across portions of Texas and Louisiana on Sunday.
This is just a brief look at current weather hazards. We can provide you site-specific weather forecast information for the purpose of protecting your personnel and assets and to assess your weather risk. Try a 7-day demo right away and learn how timely precision weather information can enhance your bottom line.