National Weather Summary for Tuesday, August 24, 2016
by David Moran, on Aug 23, 2016 11:41:29 AM
A surface low will develop across the Northern Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the associated cold front, thunderstorms will are expected across portions of the Northern and Central Plains. This cold front will progress to the east on Wednesday, allowing for the risk for thunderstorms across portions of the Midwest. By Thursday, the cold front will stall across the region and will be a focal point for the development of thunderstorms for portions of the Southern Plains into the Ozarks.
An area of low pressure, bringing a cold front through Region 1, will be the focal point for potential severe thunderstorm development today. The initial threat for severe weather will be an area of thunderstorms moving through Nebraska and lifting toward the Midwest. These storms should increase in coverage through the afternoon, bringing a risk for damaging winds and large hail from Iowa into Minnesota. Later in the afternoon, storm development is forecast along the frontal boundary and southward along the low pressure trough into the Southern Plains. For the Northern and Central Plains, thunderstorms along the cold front will be mostly isolated, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Into the Southern Plains, widely scattered and mostly non-severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the higher terrain, with a few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts.
In addition to the thunderstorm potential, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible across portions of Iowa. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches possible.
Update 12:28pm CDT: Thunderstorms moving the northeast Nebraska. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary hazards.
Radar 12:28pm CDT
Major Cities in Region: Amarillo, TX, Wichita, KS, Kansas City, MO, Omaha, NE, Minneapolis, MN
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible across the Midwest on Wednesday
The cold front that will move across the Plains on Tuesday will move across portions of the Midwest on Wednesday. Ahead of the cold front, warm, moist air will allow for the development of thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon hours. Primary impacts with any storms that develop will be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Major Cities in Region: Amarillo, TX, Wichita, KS, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, St. Louis, MO, Chicago, IL
SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Thursday across the Southern Plains and into the Missouri Ozarks
By Thursday, a dissipating cold front over the Central Plains is forecast to stall across the Southern Plains from Northwest Texas, northeastward into the Midwest region. Moderate instability accompanied by a narrows belt of southwesterly jet stream winds will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms, primarily from the Texas Panhandle into central Missouri. A few strong to severe thunderstorms may produce severe wind gusts and large hail, but severe impacts should remain fairly isolated.
Major Cities in Region: Amarillo, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Springfield, MO, St. Louis, MO
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday
Tropical Storm Gaston (green oval) has developed off the coast of Africa and is moving west-northwest at 21 mph. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are at 65 mph and additional strengthening is expected with Gaston becoming a hurricane later today.
Further west, a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located east of the Leeward Islands (red oval). Environmental conditions will be somewhat conducive for further development later in the week while the system moves toward Hispaniola, as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas. Gusty winds, heavy rains, possible flash floods, and mudslides will all be possible across these areas.
What was Tropical Storm Fiona (blue oval) has become a post tropical cyclone and is moving toward the west-northwest at near 12 mph. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph with higher gusts. The low should gradually weaken over the next few days.
A Look Ahead
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern High Plains along a stalled front on Friday. Heading into the weekend, the threat for severe weather will shift eastward across the Midwest as a weak upper level trough moves across the region. By early next week, there will be the potential for a tropical system to approach the east coast of Florida which will need to be monitored in the coming days.
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