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Helping Business Weather the Storm

National Weather Summary for Tuesday, August 14, 2018

by David Moran, on Aug 14, 2018 11:16:34 AM

Heavy to excessive rainfall will continue from the Central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday as an area of low pressure remains in place across the region. An upper level trough will move into the High Plains, bringing a risk for thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may develop across the Texas Panhandle into West Central Oklahoma as instability builds. As an area of low pressure continues to move across the Northeast, there will be a potential for excessive rainfall. An upper level disturbance will allow for the development of thunderstorms across portions of the Carolinas.

  • Excessive Rainfall Continuing for the Central Plains and Midwest Tuesday
  • Thunderstorms Tuesday for the High Plains
  • Risk for Thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle and West Central Oklahoma on Tuesday
  • Potential for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday across the Northeast
  • Potential for Thunderstorms across the Carolinas on Tuesday
  • Thunderstorm Potential for the Central High Plains on Wednesday
  • Thunderstorms Wednesday for the Mid Mississippi Valley
  • Risk for Thunderstorms across the Northeast on Wednesday
  • Excessive Rainfall Wednesday for the Midwest
  • Thunderstorms for the Central  Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday
  • Potential for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
  • Excessive Rainfall for the Great Lakes Thursday
  • Tropical Update

US Hazards Tuesday, August 14, 2018
US Hazards

Excessive Rainfall Continuing for the Central Plains and Midwest Tuesday
Heavy to excessive rainfall will continue as an area of low pressure remains in place over central Kansas. Rainfall amounts will range 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 2.50 inches. Given the rainfall over the previous days, there will be a risk for flooding. 

Major Cities in Region: Dodge City, KS, Topeka, KS, Kansas City, MO

Rainfall Accumulation for Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation for Tuesday

Thunderstorms Tuesday for the High Plains
An upper level disturbance will move eastward across the region with upslope flow at the surface. With plentiful moisture in place, daytime heating will allow for the development of widely scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move eastward by the late afternoon and early evening. Strong to damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards with these storms. 

Major Cities in Region: Billings, MT, Casper, WY, Cheyenne, WY

Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday

Risk for Thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle and West Central Oklahoma on Tuesday
Moisture and daytime heating will allow instability to build across the eastern Texas Panhandle and West Central Oklahoma. This will create an environment favorable for the development of isolated thunderstorms. Storms will develop during the early afternoon and move eastward. Strong winds and hail will be the primary hazards with these storms. Thunderstorms will weaken after sunset, but rain will likely continue into the overnight hours. 

Major Cities in Region: Childress, TX, Weatherford, OK, Lawton, OK

Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday

Potential for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday across the Northeast
An area of low pressure across the Northeast will bring a potential for flooding across portions of the Northeast. Rainfall totals will range 0.50-1.00 inch with locally higher amounts in excess of 1.50 inches. 

Major Cities in Region: Elmira, NY, Syracuse. NY, Albany, NY

Rainfall Accumulation for Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation for Tuesday

Potential for Thunderstorms across the Carolinas on Tuesday
An upper level low will move out of the Northeast tonight. Before it does, one or two weak disturbances will move over the region. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region through the evening. A few storms could become severe with severe winds and large hail the primary hazards.

Major Cities in Region: Raleigh, NC, Greenville, NC

Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday

Thunderstorm Potential for the Central High Plains on Wednesday
A developing area of low pressure will bring a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to much of the Central High Plains on Wednesday. Some thunderstorms may be ongoing across South Dakota during the morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, some of which could become supercellular. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Further south, upslope flow will allow for the development of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Large hail and strong winds will be the primary hazards with these storms. The risk will decrease through the evening. 

Major Cities in Region: Denver, CO, Goodland, KS, Guymon, OK, North Platte, NE

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday, August 15, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Thunderstorms Wednesday for the Mid Mississippi Valley
A slow moving area of low pressure will bring a potential for heavy rainfall, as well as a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms that develop during the afternoon and early evening. The risk will decrease during the evening and overnight hours, but rainfall will likely continue.

Major Cities in Region: Little Rock, AR, St. Louis, MO, Evansville, IN

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday, August 15, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Risk for Thunderstorms across the Northeast on Wednesday
A cold front is expected to move through the Northeast on Wednesday with thunderstorms developing along and ahead of it. Activity will develop during the late afternoon with strong winds and small hail the primary hazards with the stronger storms. 

Major Cities in Region: Burlington, VT, Bangor, ME

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday, August 15, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Excessive Rainfall Wednesday for the Midwest
A slow moving area of low pressure will bring a potential for heavy to excessive rainfall to portions of the Midwest on Wednesday. Scattered widespread showers and thunderstorms will be likely for much of the day and into the evening. During the afternoon, thunderstorms may increase in intensity and produce isolated areas of heavy to excessive rainfall. Accumulations of 0.50-1.00 inch with locally higher amounts in excess of 1.50 inches are expected. 

Major Cities in Region: St. Louis, MO, Champaign, IL

Rainfall Accumulation for Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation for Wednesday

Thunderstorms for the Central  Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of Nebraska Thursday morning, leaving behind outflow boundaries. Plentiful moisture and daytime heating ahead of a surface front will likely lead to the redevelopment of thunderstorms along these outflow boundaries during the afternoon. The primary hazards with these storms will be strong winds and large hail. Thunderstorms may evolve into complexes by the evening.

Major Cities in Region: Grand Island, NE, Wichita, KS, Topeka, KS, Kansas City, MO, Little Rock, AR, Memphis, TN

SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday, August 16, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday

Potential for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
A slow moving area of low pressure moving northeastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms early in the day. Partial clearing and pockets of heating may allow thunderstorms to redevelop during the afternoon. Strong winds will be the primary hazard, but there will also be a potential for large hail.

Major Cities in Region: Evansville, IN, Nashville, TN, Louisville, KY,  Cincinnati, OH, Columbus, OH, Charleston, WV

SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday, August 16, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday

Excessive Rainfall for the Great Lakes Thursday
There will be a risk for heavy to excessive rainfall leading to areas of flooding over portions of the Great Lakes on Thursday as a slow moving area of low pressure moves northeastward. Rainfall totals will range 1.00-1.50 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 2 inches.

Major Cities in Region: Lansing, MI, Bay City, MI, Detroit, MI


Rainfall Accumulation for Thursday, August 16, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation for Thursday

Tropical Update
A non-tropical area of low pressure located south of Cape Race, Newfoundland is producing cloudiness and thunderstorms to the east of its center. Although the low has not become any better organized, conditions could become more conducive for subtropical development by Wednesday. The system is expected to move northeastward over the colder waters of the North Atlantic by late Thursday or Friday, which should limit any additional development. 

Enhanced Infrared Satellite 8/14/18
Enhanced Infrared Satellite

A Look Ahead
Showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Northeast into the Appalachians on Friday ahead of a cold front. Heavy rain may develop over the Mid Mississippi Valley as an area of low pressure approaches. On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. By Sunday, the heaviest activity will move into the Mid Atlantic. Another round of heavy rain may move into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday.

Topics:Nowcast/Forecast

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