Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Northeast through Friday as Tropical Storm Jose continues to weaken. A warm front will be the focus for thunderstorms across the Dakotas and Minnesota on Thursday.
Tropical Storm Conditions Continuing for the Northeast through Friday
Tropical Storm Jose is weakening, but as of early this morning still contained winds up to 60 mph near the center. Winds in excess of 40 mph extend about 200 miles from the center, which is 150 miles southeast of Nantucket Island. Even though the storm is weakening, its westward movement could still bring tropical force winds to the region. Uncertainty regarding Jose's path is high; it should move westward toward the coast then it could move back to the east. However, the center is expected to stay off the coast with dissipation expected early next week. Jose should have weakened enough by Saturday morning that tropical force conditions will have ended over the threat region.
Major Cities in Region: Providence, RI, Boston, MA
Thunderstorm Potential Thursday for the Dakotas and Minnesota
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may develop during the late evening and overnight hours. As a warm front lifts to the north-northeast, strong southerly winds along the front will provide lift for the development of thunderstorms. Strong winds and hail will be the primary hazards with these storms.
Major Cities in Region: Fargo, ND, International Falls, MN, Minneapolis, MN, Duluth, MN
Thunderstorms for Portions of the Central Plains Thursday
A dryline is expected to set up across portions of West Texas, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas throughout the day. This dryline is expected to shift slightly to the east throughout the day as a shortwave trough moves northeastward. As a result, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon to the east of the dryline. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat with these storms. Activity is expected to weaken by late evening.
Major Cities in Region: Lubbock, TX, Woodward, OK, Hutchinson, KS
Risk for Thunderstorms Friday from Eastern Nebraska through Minnesota
An area of low pressure that developed in the lee of the Rockies yesterday will move out into the Plains today, and some severe thunderstorms are expected along their associated fronts. From Nebraska into Minnesota, warm moist air will be pulled into the region from the south, and daytime heating should help produce some moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorms should begin developing during the afternoon and continue through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Major Cities in Region: Sioux Falls, SD, Fargo, ND, International Falls, MN
Thunderstorms from Central Nebraska through Eastern New Mexico Friday
The same area of low pressure described above will contribute to the development of severe thunderstorms from central Nebraska through eastern New Mexico. Moisture will not be as plentiful, however, a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may develop.
Major Cities in Region: Clovis, NM, Goodland, KS, North Platte, NE
Potential for Thunderstorms Saturday from Wisconsin to the Texas Panhandle
An upper level trough moving in from the west will bring in cooler air aloft. This, coupled with plentiful warm moist air at the surface ahead of an advancing front, will provide more than enough instability for the development of thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with these storms. To the southwest, storms will be more isolated.
Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Jose (green oval) is 145 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts and currently stationary. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days and is forecast to become post tropical tonight or on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are currently 60 mph.
Hurricane Maria (red oval) has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and is located 105 miles of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Maria is moving northwestward at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected early Friday. On the current forecast track, Maria's eye will pass offshore the northern coast of the Dominican Republic today. By tonight or early Friday, Maria will be near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on Friday. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or so.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnants of Lee (blue oval) remain disorganized. Upper level winds are expected to be unfavorable for significant development during the next few days. The low is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward for the next several days.
A Look Ahead
Thunderstorms may continue from the Midwest into Texas Sunday and Monday along and ahead of a slow moving cold front. Across portions of West and Central Texas, heavy rain is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches are expected.
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