National Weather Summary for Thursday, October 20, 2016
by David Moran, on Oct 20, 2016 10:57:50 AM
A strong area of low pressure will bring a cold front across much of the eastern US, allowing for the potential for thunderstorms on Thursday. This same area of low pressure will bring heavy rainfall to portions of the eastern Great Lakes. As this area of low pressure moves northeastward, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible across the Northeast Friday into Saturday.
A strong low pressure trough will bring a cold front sweeping across the United States with a warm front lifting into the Northeast today. This will allow for a broad region of shower and thunderstorm activity, with some of those thunderstorms becoming stronger to severe during the afternoon across the Southern through Eastern US. Hail and gusting winds will be possible across the entirety of the outlook region, with a low and isolated chance of a tornado across Pennsylvania and up into Southern New York.
Major Cities in Region: Jackson, MS, Nashville, TN, Pittsburgh, PA
The first strong cold front of the fall is forecast to reach the Texas Coast late Thursday evening and then continue across the northern Gulf through Friday. Relatively light and variable winds are forecast just ahead of the front with a shift to northerly winds of 25 to 35 knots as the front passes. A prolonged period of 25 to 35 knot NNE winds is forecast over the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday night through early Friday in the wake of the front. In response to these near gale force winds, seas will become rough across the majority of the warning area with seas in excess of 10 feet likely for most deep water locations in the southwestern and south-central Gulf by mid-morning Friday. Conditions should gradually subside late Friday through Saturday as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf.
Excessive Rainfall Possible for the Eastern Great Lakes on Thursday
An area of low pressure will bring a warm front into the Northeast while the associated cold front pushes into the Great Lakes. This will bring the risk for heavy rainfall from the southern Great Lakes into Maine. Rainfall accumulations of 2-4 inches with isolated higher amounts of 5 inches possible.
Major Cities in Region: Cleveland, OH, Pittsburgh, PA, Rochester, NY
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Thursday
Excessive Rainfall Possible across the Northeast on Friday
As the area of low pressure described above continues to move across the Northeast, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across portions of the region. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible, in addition to flooding and flash flooding.
Major Cities in Region: Burlington, VT, Augusta, ME, Portland, ME
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Friday
Excessive Rainfall Possible across Portions of the Northeast on Saturday
As the area of low pressure continues to move northeastward, heavy rain will continue across portions of the Northeast with the heaviest rain for portions of Vermont and New Hampshire. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible.
Major Cities in Region: Plattsburgh, NY
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Saturday
An area of low pressure (green circle) remains largely disorganized this morning, but could see slight strengthening over the next day or two contingent upon improving environmental conditions. The forecast track will bring this area northwestward and toward an approaching trough of low pressure on Thursday. By Friday, it is forecast to re-curve to the northeast ahead of an advancing cold front while accelerating in forward speed through the weekend. This low is forecast to remain over open seas and will pose minimal threats to land until moving near or over Nova Scotia on Saturday and eventually Newfoundland.
Infrared Tropical Satellite
A Look Ahead
Into the middle of the week, no noteworthy threat regions are currently forecast. Low pressure will finally lift through the Pacific Northwest, allowing for shower activity to begin subsiding. Meanwhile, a low pressure trough will be taking shape and then moving across the Central US and towards the Great Lakes. Finally, a broad high pressure ridge across the Eastern US will finally move out, ending the mostly quiet conditions across the region.
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