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Helping Business Weather the Storm

National Weather Summary for Monday, October 1, 2018

by David Moran, on Oct 1, 2018 10:57:04 AM

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Midwest on Monday ahead of a cold front. This activity will have the potential to produce excessive rainfall across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. As moisture and wind shear increase in advance of Tropical Storm Rosa, thunderstorms are expected across Southwest Arizona. Tropical Storm Rosa will bring a risk for excessive rainfall across the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners through Wednesday.

  • Thunderstorms across the Midwest on Monday
  • Excessive Rainfall Monday from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
  • Potential for Thunderstorms across Southwest Arizona on Monday
  • Risk for Excessive Rainfall through Wednesday from the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners
  • Thunderstorms for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York on Tuesday
  • Risk for Thunderstorms Tuesday for the Desert Southwest
  • Thunderstorms from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday
  • Tropical Update

US Hazards Monday, October 1, 2018
US Hazards

Thunderstorms across the Midwest on Monday
An upper level disturbance is forecast to intensify and lift across the Midwest this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will be the focus for the development of thunderstorms. Small hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. The risk for damaging winds may continue into the overnight hours before weakening.

Major Cities in Region: Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL,  Detroit, MI, Cleveland, OH

Thunderstorm Risk for Monday, October 1, 2018
Thunderstorm Risk for Monday

Excessive Rainfall Monday from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
In addition to the thunderstorms described above, there will be a risk for excessive rainfall across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches are expected. This will lead to a risk for flooding and local runoff. 

Major Cities in Region: Cedar Rapids, IA, Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Grand Rapids, MI

Rainfall Accumulation for Monday, October 1, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation for Monday

Potential for Thunderstorms across Southwest Arizona on Monday
Increasing moisture and wind shear is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona in advance of Rosa on Monday. The combination of moisture, shear, and daytime heating will allow for a few thunderstorms to become marginally severe. There will be a low risk of damaging winds and a brief tornado with these storms. 

Major Cities in Region: Mesa, AZ, Tucson, AZ

Thunderstorm Risk for Monday, October 1, 2018

Thunderstorm Risk for Monday

Risk for Excessive Rainfall through Wednesday from the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners
The approach of Tropical Storm Rosa will bring abundant moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region over the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through Wednesday as the remnants of Rosa move across Arizona. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 4 inches are forecast, leading to a risk for flash flooding and local runoff.

Major Cities in Region: Yuma, AZ, Phoenix, AZ, Tucson, AZ

Rainfall Accumulation for October 1-3, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation through Wednesday

Thunderstorms for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York on Tuesday
The area of low pressure over the Midwest will shift eastward on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the front during the afternoon with activity extending from eastern Ohio into northern Pennsylvania and southwest New York. A few storms could become severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. 

Major Cities in Region: Cleveland, OH, Pittsburgh, PA, Buffalo, NY, State College, PA

SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 2, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday

Risk for Thunderstorms Tuesday for the Desert Southwest
A low risk for marginally severe storms will continue across the Desert Southwest into Tuesday as moisture continues to stream into the region. Daytime heating will allow a few storms to become better organized with a low threat for severe wind, small hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. 

Major Cities in Region: Mesa, AZ, Flagstaff, AZ, Phoenix, AZ, Albuquerque, NM

SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 2, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday

Thunderstorms from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday
A strong upper level low is forecast to move into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, warm air and plentiful moisture will allow instability to build from northeast Kansas into southern Wisconsin. While there is some uncertainty in coverage and instability, there will be a low risk for severe storms capable of producing severe winds and hail.

Major Cities in Region: Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Madison, WI, Green Bay, WI

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday, October 3, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Leslie is 615 miles east of Bermuda and is moving west-southwestward at 5 mph. A slow southwestward or southward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Enhanced Infrared Satellite 10/1/18
Enhanced Infrared Satellite

A Look Ahead
Thunderstorms will extend from the Northeast into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday ahead of a cold front. Across the Northern Plains, showers and thunderstorms may develop on Friday as an area of low pressure moves eastward. By Saturday, thunderstorms are forecast from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Additional thunderstorms and heavy rain may develop across the Central Plains on Sunday.

Topics:Nowcast/Forecast

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