National Weather Summary for Monday, March 6, 2017
by David Moran, on Mar 6, 2017 11:29:46 AM
Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Monday across portions of the Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley along a cold front. Snow will continue for portions of the Pacific Northwest through noon Monday as cold air filters into the region. As an area of low pressure continues to track eastward across the Plains, snow is likely across portions of the northern Plains. Elevated winds and seas will continue for portions of the Gulf of Mexico as a ridge of high pressure persists over the eastern US.
An intensifying area of low pressure in the Dakotas will push northeastward into southern Manitoba and Ontario over the next day. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward from the low into Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Daytime heating will allow for enough destabilization for the development of severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be most likely from central Minnesota southwestward into eastern Kansas from the mid afternoon through the early evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, but a few tornadoes will be possible if any isolated storms form ahead of the front. High resolution models are indicating the potential for strong supercells across southeastern Kansas this evening between 6pm and 10pm. Late this evening through early tomorrow morning, a squall line with damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado is forecast to progress southeastward from southern Minnesota into eastern Oklahoma. The line will more than likely weaken with a few instances of damaging wind before it moves into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys near daybreak tomorrow.
Update 2pm CST: Tornado Watch in effect for much of Iowa until 10pm CST.
Update 2:30pm CST: Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail south of Sioux City, IA.
Radar 2:30pm CST
Update 2:44pm CST: Tornado Watch in effect for portions of Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska until 10pm CST.
Update 2:52pm CST: Tornado Watch for portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin until 10pm CST.
Update 2:59pm CST: Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds approaching Omaha.
Radar 2:59pm CST
Major Cities in Region: Tulsa, OK, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Minneapolis, MN, Little Rock, AR, Memphis, TN, St. Louis, MO
Snow will continue for coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest through noon on Monday. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are forecast mainly in the mountains.
Major Cities in Region: Seattle, WA, Portland, OR
As the area of low pressure described in Region 1 continues to move northeastward, snow is expected to develop across portions of the northern Plains. Snow accumulations of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches are expected. In addition, winds of 30-35 mph with gusts in excess of 50 mph will allow for wind chills below 5°F. Across northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, snow accumulations of 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts in excess of 8 inches are forecast.
Elevated winds and seas will continue across portions of the Gulf of Mexico through the day on Monday as a ridge of high pressure over the eastern US persists. East-southeasterly winds will become southeasterly to south-southeasterly at 15-25 knots with gusts in excess of 30 knots. Seas near the shore will be 5-6 feet. In the deeper waters, swells of 6-9 feet are expected. Across eastern portions of Region 4, swells near the shore will be 5-8 feet. In the deeper waters, swells are forecast to range 8-11 feet.
Significant Snowfall Possible for Northern Rockies on Wednesday
As a new area of low pressure moves into the Northern Rockies, moderate to heavy snowfall is forecast for the higher elevations. Snowfall totals of 6-10 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 12 inches are expected.
Major Cities in Region: Missoula, MT, Helena, MT, Great Falls, MT
Excessive Snowfall Risk Outline for Friday
A Look Ahead
Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue for portions of the Northern Rockies on Thursday as a warm front lifts northward. Lower elevations are expected to see mostly rain as temperatures warm behind the front. Higher elevations will see additional snowfall accumulations of 6-10 inches.
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