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Helping Business Weather the Storm

National Weather Summary for Monday, June 18, 2018

by David Moran, on Jun 18, 2018 11:41:55 AM

As an area of low pressure stalls over southern Texas, a risk for excessive rainfall will continue through Friday.  Elevated winds and seas will continue through Friday for portions of the western Gulf of Mexico. There will be a potential for thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast on ahead of a cold front. Some of these thunderstorms may pose a risk for excessive rainfall. Thunderstorms may develop from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes as a cold front stalls across the region. These storms could produce heavy to excessive rainfall across the region. Upslope flow across Colorado and Wyoming will promote the development of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. A risk for excessive rainfall will continue for Idaho and Montana.

  • Excessive Rainfall across Texas through Friday
  • Elevated Winds and Seas through Friday across the Western Gulf of Mexico
  • Thunderstorms for the Northeast on Monday
  • Risk for Excessive Rainfall Monday across the Northeast
  • Potential for Thunderstorms across the Great Lakes and Central Plains Monday
  • Excessive Rainfall Monday from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes
  • Thunderstorms across Colorado and Wyoming on Monday
  • Potential for Excessive Rainfall Monday across Idaho and Montana
  • Thunderstorm Potential from the Front Range through the Central Plains on Tuesday
  • Risk for Thunderstorms Tuesday from the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic
  • Excessive Rainfall from the High Plains into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday
  • Thunderstorms for the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday
  • Potential for Thunderstorms Wednesday across the Mid Atlantic
  • Tropical Update

US Hazards Monday, June 18, 2018US Hazards

Watch the 2018 Hurricane Season Forecast

Excessive Rainfall across Texas through Friday
A trough of low pressure is forecast to stall across the southern Texas region over the next several days, allowing for a long sustained period of rainfall through at least Wednesday, with activity then lessening but still possible through the end of the week and into the weekend. Current rainfall estimates through Friday show a widespread swath of 3-5 inches, but localized totals in excess of 10 inches, particularly near Corpus Christi, are forecast. Significant flooding concerns are likely, and flash flooding is expected.

Major Cities in Region: Brownsville, TX, Corpus Christi, TX, Houston, TX, Beaumont, TX

Rainfall Accumulation for June 18-20, 2018Rainfall Accumulation through Wednesday

Elevated Winds and Seas through Friday across the Western Gulf of Mexico
An extended period of elevated winds and seas will continue through early Friday. Winds will increase as a result of an area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds will range 25-35 knots with gusts in excess of 45 knots. Seas near the shore will range 7-10 feet and 9-12 feet in the deeper waters. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across portions of the western Gulf of Mexico through Monday evening. Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, waterspouts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning will all be potential hazards with these storms. 

Gulf of Mexico Advisories 6/18/18WDT Hazardous Thunderstorm Watch and Marine Weather Warning

Thunderstorms for the Northeast on Monday
An area of low pressure and a cold front moving across Canada and into New England will present a risk of severe weather today. Plentiful moisture will be present, allowing for widespread thunderstorms across the frontal boundary. Storms will develop across Canada and the Great Lakes regions and spread eastward into New England, with damaging winds the expected hazard.

Major Cities in Region: Buffalo, NY, Syracuse, NY, Albany, NY, Burlington, VT, Portland, ME, Augusta, ME, Bangor, ME

Thunderstorm Risk for Monday, June 18, 2018Thunderstorm Risk for Monday

Risk for Excessive Rainfall Monday across the Northeast
Along with the threat for severe weather today, there will be an accompanying threat for moderate to heavy rainfall across the region. Rainfall totals of 1-1.50 inches are expected, with localized totals in the strongest thunderstorms exceeding 2 inches.

Major Cities in Region: Augusta, ME, Bangor, ME

Rainfall Accumulation for Monday, June 18, 2018Rainfall Accumulation for Monday

Potential for Thunderstorms across the Great Lakes and Central Plains Monday
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may develop today ahead of a stalled frontal boundary and weak area of low pressure across the region. Ongoing showers and storms will start to weaken this morning, with redevelopment later this afternoon. Strong winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

Major Cities in Region: North Platte, NE, Lincoln, NE, Sioux Falls, SD, Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Chicago, IL, Detroit, MI

Thunderstorm Risk for Monday, June 18, 2018Thunderstorm Risk for Monday

Excessive Rainfall Monday from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes
Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across this outlook region this morning, with a risk for thunderstorms later today, promoting further heavy precipitation. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches with localized totals exceeding 2.5 inches are forecast.

Major Cities in Region: Rapid City, SD, Pierre, SD, La Crosse, WI, Green Bay, WI

Rainfall Accumulation for Monday, June 18, 2018Rainfall Accumulation for Monday

Thunderstorms across Colorado and Wyoming on Monday
Upslope flow across the high terrain of the region will occur today, promoting isolated instances of severe weather during the afternoon through early evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be potential hazards, but these storms should be limited to around the border of Wyoming and Colorado. 

Major Cities in Region: Casper, WY, Cheyenne, WY

Thunderstorm Risk for Monday, June 18, 2018

Thunderstorm Risk for Monday

Potential for Excessive Rainfall Monday across Idaho and Montana
As an area of low pressure continues to meander across the Intermountain West today, the already moist region will continue to receive showers and thunderstorms with a threat for flooding expected. Current rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are forecast, with localized totals in excess of 2.5 inches forecast.

Major Cities in Region: Missoula, MT, Butte, MT, Helena, MT, Great Falls, MT

Rainfall Accumulation for Monday, June 18, 2018Rainfall Accumulation for Monday

Thunderstorm Potential from the Front Range through the Central Plains on Tuesday
A lingering area of low pressure, a stalled frontal boundary, and plentiful moisture will continue to promote strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow, this time for the Front Range through Central Plains. Initial development from upslope flow as well as along the stalled boundary is expected, with favorable wind shear promoting supercell storms capable of a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Storms should merge with each other and continue into the evening and nighttime hours moving eastward.

Major Cities in Region: Denver, CO, Cheyenne, WY, Scottsbluff, NE, North Platte, NE, Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA

SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday, June 19, 2018SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday

Risk for Thunderstorms Tuesday from the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic
The stalled frontal boundary described above will also be a focal point for thunderstorm development from the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, with some severe activity possible. The greatest potential for widespread storms will be from the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic, though some activity off of the Appalachians may occur and move eastward as well. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with these storms.

Major Cities in Region: Springfield, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Cincinnati, OH, Columbus, OH, Charleston, WV, Richmond, VA, Norfolk, VA

SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday, June 19, 2018SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday

Excessive Rainfall from the High Plains into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday
With plentiful moisture expected along a stalled frontal boundary stretching from Colorado through the Mid-Atlantic, areas of widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur, including a severe weather risk tomorrow and Wednesday. A risk for flooding along the entire boundary is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, and localized amounts in excess of 3-4 inches, are forecast across the Central Plains and Midwest.

Major Cities in Region: Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Springfield, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Cincinnati, OH, Charleston, WV

Rainfall Accumulation for June 19-20, 2018Rainfall Accumulation for Tuesday and Wednesday

Thunderstorms for the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday
Although ongoing cloud cover and possibly a line of thunderstorms could inhibit some development on Wednesday for this region, outflow and a cold front should allow for new development during the afternoon from Oklahoma northward into Iowa. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks with this activity.

Major Cities in Region: Lawton, OK, Dodge City, KS, Oklahoma City, OK, Wichita, KS, Tulsa, OK, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday, June 20, 2018SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Potential for Thunderstorms Wednesday across the Mid Atlantic
Although not as strong as previous days, thunderstorms may develop along a stalled frontal boundary from Virginia to the coastline on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of damaging winds as they move eastward.

Major Cities in Region: Lynchburg, VA, Richmond, VA, Norfolk, VA

convout4-9SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Tropical Update
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper level low interacting with a surface low. Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland over Texas later today and tonight. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is anticipated across southern and southeastern Texas are likely to continue over the next few days. 

Enhanced Infrared Satellite 6/18/18Enhanced Infrared Satellite

A Look Ahead
Thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Plains on Thursday as an area of low pressure moves eastward. This activity will move into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Friday. On Saturday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Plains. By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Ohio River Valley into the Plains. 

This is just a brief look at current weather hazards. We can provide you site-specific weather forecast information for the purpose of protecting your personnel and assets and to assess your weather risk. Try a 7-day demo right away and learn how timely precision weather information can enhance your bottom line.

Topics:Nowcast/Forecast

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