Thunderstorms and excessive rainfall are forecast Monday across the southern Great Lakes ahead of a weak front. Across the High Plains, thunderstorms may develop ahead of an area of low pressure and its associated cold front.

• Risk for Thunderstorms across the Southern Great Lakes on Monday
• Thunderstorms Monday across the High Plains
• Potential for Thunderstorms from the Northern Plains into the Northeast on Tuesday
• Strong to Severe Thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Great Lakes
• Tropical Update

US Hazards

Risk for Thunderstorms across the Southern Great Lakes on Monday
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for much of the day across portions of the Midwest and Southern Great Lakes. Thunderstorms from this morning are currently weakening, however, additional thunderstorms are expected this afternoon along a cold front. Severe winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will all be potential hazards with these storms. A damaging wind risk will persist through the evening as thunderstorms move toward the southeast. 

Update 2:36pm EDT: Severe thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging winds north of Columbus, OH.Radar 2:36pm EDT

Major Cities in Region: Springfield, IL, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Detroit, MI, Cleveland, OH, Pittsburgh, PA, Buffalo, NY, Syracuse, NY

Region 1

Thunderstorms Monday across the High Plains
Daytime heating combined with terrain effects will create an environment favorable for the development of thunderstorms. Storms are expected to develop along a front that is approaching from the west. These storms are expected to intensify quickly, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. The severe risk will diminish overnight as these storms move eastward out of the region.

Major Cities in Region: Butte, MT, Billings, MT

Region 2

Potential for Thunderstorms from the Northern Plains into the Northeast on Tuesday
An upper level trough and associated surface low will move over portions of the eastern Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build and allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to begin developing during the afternoon hours. Primary hazards with any thunderstorms will be strong to severe wind gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Into the evening, thunderstorms may congeal into a complex and push southeastward. 

Across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast, an area of low pressure and cold front will provide enough lift for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will bring ample moisture into the area, which will allow instability to build. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and move southward with time. Strong to severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards with any storms that develop.

In addition to the severe weather potential, there will be a risk for excessive rainfall across eastern Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin, and far northeastern Iowa. Rainfall amounts between 0.50-1.50 inches with locally higher amounts are forecast. From east central Illinois eastward into west central Ohio, rainfall amounts around 0.50 inch with locally higher amounts are expected.

Major Cities in Region: Minot, ND, Bismarck, ND, Sioux Falls, SD, Des Moines, IA, Minneapolis, MN, Green Bay, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL, Detroit, MI, Cleveland, OH, Pittsburgh, PA, Philadelphia, PA, New York, NY, Augusta, ME

SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Great Lakes
An upper level trough and associated surface low will bring a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Southerly winds bringing in moisture and daytime heating will allow instability to build, leading to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong to severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards with these storms. 

Major Cities in Region: Green Bay, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL, Detroit, MI, Cleveland, OH

SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Tropical Update
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development is possible through the week while this system moves westward at 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.

Enhanced Infrared Tropical Satellite

A Look Ahead
By Thursday, showers and thunderstorms may develop over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, but overall severe potential is low. This risk will continue into Friday.

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