National Weather Summary for Friday, November 4, 2016
by David Moran, on Nov 4, 2016 11:03:00 AM
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for portions of the Desert Southwest on Friday ahead of an area of low pressure. Across New Mexico, excessive rainfall will be possible in association with ongoing thunderstorms. As the area of low pressure continues to move eastward, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of New Mexico and west Texas.
A weak upper level low is forecast over Arizona, providing upper level support for thunderstorms to the east of the low. With favorable wind shear over portions of New Mexico and far southwestern Texas, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather potential will mostly include the support for strong winds and large hail, with perhaps an isolated tornado as well due to the vertical wind shear in the region.
Major Cities in Region: Las Cruces, NM, El Paso, TX
Excessive Rainfall Possible across New Mexico on Friday
Numerous showers and general thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of New Mexico. A small threat for excessive rainfall will exist over southern New Mexico into early Saturday with training shower activity over the region. Rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches will pose a small threat for minor flooding and local runoff.
Major Cities in Region: Truth or Consequences, NM
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Friday
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible across West Texas and New Mexico on Saturday
A cutoff low over the Desert Southwest should continue to slowly advancing eastward and into the Southern High Plains on Saturday. Showers and general thunderstorms are forecast from New Mexico into Northwest Texas, with a marginal threat of a few stronger storms. Small hail and marginally severe wind gusts in excess of 45 mph should be the primary threats, if any.
Major Cities in Region: El Paso, TX, Alamogordo, NM, Carlsbad, NM
SPC Convective Outlook for Saturday
Excessive Rainfall Possible across Central Texas on Sunday
As the upper level low continues to move eastward on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible over much of Central and West Texas, with a risk for excessive rainfall. Accumulations of 1-2 inches will be possible, allowing for the potential for flooding and local runoff.
Major Cities in Region: San Antonio, TX, Austin, TX
Excessive Rainfall Risk Outline for Sunday
No tropical development is expected during the next 48 hours.
A Look Ahead
The low over the Southwest will move into the Southern Plains on Monday, bringing a chance for rain across the Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, another round of rain will move into the Pacific Northwest as an area of low pressure approaches the region.
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