National Weather Summary for Friday, June 16, 2017
by David Moran, on Jun 16, 2017 10:43:05 AM
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. Across the Southeast, building instability will allow for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.
- Severe Thunderstorms Expected Friday for the Central Plains and Upper Midwest
- Thunderstorm Potential for Portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Friday
- Severe Thunderstorms Expected Saturday for the Central Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes
- Risk for Thunderstorms from the Northeast to the Southern Plains on Sunday
Severe Thunderstorms Expected Friday for the Central Plains and Upper Midwest
Strong jet stream winds remain over the Upper Midwest and Missouri Valley this morning. Within that upper flow, one or two waves of low pressure are forecast to push across the region later this afternoon and evening. With moisture remaining high across the region, a very unstable environment will support the development of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds. A broken line of storms is forecast to develop from north-central Kansas northeastward to the Minnesota/Iowa border by late afternoon. Storms should quickly become severe and progress southeastward with potential severe impacts for Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. The greatest risk for severe weather will exist across Southeast Nebraska, Northeast Kansas, Northwest Missouri, as well as Central and Southwest Iowa. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop further southwestward into Northwest Oklahoma and Southwest Kansas with a lesser threat of large hail and severe winds.
Major Cities in Region: Dodge City, KS, Wichita, KS, Topeka, KS, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, St. Louis, MO, Madison, WI
Thunderstorm Potential for Portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Friday
There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across a large portion of the Mid Atlantic southward into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon as daytime heating increases. The greatest coverage will likely be over Mississippi. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with these storms. Activity should diminish after sunset.
Update 12:34pm CDT: Severe thunderstorm capable of small hail and damaging winds NW of Memphis, TN.
Radar 12:34pm CDT
Update 12:52pm CDT: Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee until 9pm CDT.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Update 1:37pm CDT: Severe thunderstorm capable of damaging winds south of Memphis, TN.
Radar 1:37pm CDT
Update 1:46pm CDT: Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds west of Memphis, TN.
Radar 1:46pm CDT
Update 1:55pm CDT: Severe thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging winds north of Vicksburg, MS.
Radar 1:55pm CDT
Major Cities in Region: Memphis, TN, Jackson, MS, Pensacola, FL, Tallahassee, FL, Orlando, FL, Jacksonville, FL, Savannah, GA, Wilmington, NC, Raleigh, NC, Washington, DC
Severe Thunderstorms Expected Saturday for the Central Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes
A potent upper-level trough will likely dive southward into the Central Plains and Missouri Valley on Saturday. This trough will be associated with a strong surface low and a favorable environment for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. Overnight and early morning showers may disrupt an otherwise favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. However, any storms that develop will have the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The most likely time frame for thunderstorms will be from the early afternoon through the overnight hours.
Major Cities in Region: Dodge City, KS, Wichita, KS, Topeka, KS, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Springfield, MO, Des Moines, IA, St. Louis, MO, Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Cleveland, OH
SPC Convective Outlook for Saturday
Risk for Thunderstorms from the Northeast to the Southern Plains on Sunday
A strong surface low and cold front will affect portions of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains on Sunday. Marginal shear and moderate instability along and directly ahead of a cold front will likely allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop from upstate New York southwestward into far northeastern Texas. There is still some uncertainty, however, a marginal to slight risk of strong winds and hail will exist. Excessive rainfall amounts of 0.50-2 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 2 inches are possible.
Major Cities in Region: Oklahoma City, OK, Little Rock, AR, Memphis, TN, Nashville, TN, Charleston, WV, Cleveland, OH, Pittsburgh, PA, Buffalo, NY, Albany, NY
SPC Convective Outlook for Sunday
A Look Ahead
A few thunderstorms may develop Monday from portions of the Plains into the Northeast along a stalled front. The risk for thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday.
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