Hazardous Weather Outlook for Thursday, June 18, 2015
by WeatherOps, on Jun 17, 2015 10:04:03 AM
Heavy rain with amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible Thursday across Northeastern Oklahoma and Southwestern Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Northern High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes.
Northeast Oklahoma & Southwest Missouri: As the remnants of Tropical Depression Bill begins to track to the northeast on Thursday, heavy rainfall is forecast across much of Northeastern Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri. Total additional rainfall accumulation of 2 to 4 inches is possible across the area with locally higher amounts possible. Flash flooding and flooding will continue to be the primary concern across the area.
Northern High Plains: Moderate surface instability is forecast to form across portions of the Northern High Plains into Thursday, with modest low level moisture and steeper lapse rates aloft across the region. An upper level trough should allow for the upper level support for thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours. However, due to a shortwave creating inhibition during the day, the overall coverage of thunderstorm development will remain somewhat limited. For any isolated thunderstorm which may develop, damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, frequent lighting, and heavy rain will be the primary hazards across the area.
Ohio Valley & Lower Great Lakes: Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across a large area on Thursday as a cold front shifts across the Great Lakes. Warm surface temperatures and moderate dewpoints across the area will create instability ahead of the front leading to thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Overall wind shear across the area will remain relatively good, allowing for storms to organize with the potential to become severe. Damaging winds, hail, an isolated tornado, frequent lighting, and heavy rainfall are the primary hazards associated with any developing thunderstorm.