Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across West Texas. Locally heavy rainfall is possible for the Southern Plains.
West Texas: A strong upper-level trough will move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, providing large-scale vertical lift across much of the plains. Over West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, a warm, moist, and unstable air mass will be in place, allowing for some thunderstorms to become severe. Given the strong wind shear that will be in place in addition to this instability, storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. While the tornado threat appears low at this time, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Southern Plains: A strong upper-level trough will move into the Great Plains on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of the region. While the severe weather threat should remain confined to West Texas where instability and wind shear will be the strongest, thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Widespread rainfall accumulations of one to two inches are expected, with isolated amounts in excess of four inches possible in some locations.