Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across the Southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms are possible for the Southern High Plains.
Southern Plains: A negative tilt shortwave trough is forecast to pivot across the Southern and Central Plains on Tuesday with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible from Colorado down into Texas. Vertical wind shear will be more favorable for organized severe weather, but instability will remain more marginal. Storms will pose a risk for hail greater than 1.00 inch in diameter as well as winds in excess of 45 mph. The best chance for more severe impacts will exist further south into Texas.
Southern High Plains: Along the NM/TX border and points eastward, the subtropical jet stream is forecast to move into western Texas atop a thin axis of moderate instability developing from the Texas Panhandle southward into the Del Rio region. Developing storms across this area will pose an elevated risk for large hail, damaging winds gusting in excess 60 mph, and a small tornado risk.